Survival tipps

[Quicktrader]

28, Nov 2020: 17,919,197 cases
28, Oct 2020: 10,842,699 cases


THUS:

The monthly growth rate of - future - Covid-21:
1.65265 or 65.3% per month, despite lockdowns.


ALGEBRA:
1.65265^12 = 415.1200 p.a. x 17,919,197 = 7,438,617,929 (approximately equal to the world's total population 7,828,781,316).

Needless to say, this way or another, our world will suffer a complete Covid-2021 breakdown over the next months. Vaccine? Might or might not work; most likely as good as any other vaccine (influenza still exists..).


DEATHS:

The total deaths related to Covid have increased 23,41% over the last month (!). This is 'better' than 65% (infection growth) but is this data 14 days 'delayed', too. So far, a total of 276,514 people has passed away due to or after having Covid in just one month. That's more than a quarter of a million..


THE FUTURE (my personal opinion, for details watch 'Soylent Green'):

1) The virus is definitely out of control, mutating.

2) The growth is difficult to impossible to reduce, thus, on a larger basis, over the next 12-36 months at least 50% of the world's population will be infected.

3) Any vaccines will or will not be produced, financed, injected, non-working, or, or, or......(eg. mutations)

4) Countryside areas will be less infected but will be affected on the long-term, too.

5) Unexpected events will become more important than the virus itself (riots, wars, economic problems)

#5 will be the toughest one: Yesterday we have seen e x c e s s i v e riots in Paris, London and other cities. Currently, MANY people run out of money. They tend to violence, riots, of course. Words of love won't help a lot if they don't know or don't want to 'do'. Violence does not help either. THIS will become the biggest problem over the next months,IMO. Many people are afraid, desperate, with regard to their businesses, health, studies, financials, homes, families, living quality etc.

SECOND biggest - because automatically related - 'problem' will be the large amount of dying people: Out of 44,837,466 cases (one month ago), a total of 1,457,547 have died. The mortality is still ~3.2% (slightly reduced from previous 3.5% a few months ago). Everybody who is telling elsewise is talking bogus This is most trivial ALGEBRA (total covid infections vs. total covid-related deaths). Which death is covid-related? I don't know.

Conservatively estimated 50% of the world's population to be infected, we have to deal with approximately 130,175,816 people dying over the next few months (12, 36, 48...the time frame might be the only variable, true?). Having a look back at the 276,514, this figure - meanwhile - is everything else but fiction.

I'd even go further and say this will happen every 'virus' period, so to say every 12-36 months. A reduction of the world's population by Covid of ~1.66% ('yearly'?). Most likely, this disease will not even stop the world's population growth towards overpopulation but might Covid 'balance out' the world's population to a certain level.

However, troubles will remain, e.g. governmental regulation, more aggressive virus mutations, or individually e.g. dying family members/friends, avoiding 'infected zones' etc.

Latter, the individual challenges with regard to those two problems (virus; side effects) will certainly be our focus over the next years. To a) not become part of those '3.2%' or 130m people dying and b) to avoid the riots and problems related to the virus itself.

QT

[buyerninety]

Riverside County Sheriff's Department - not in full agreement with Governor Newsom's orders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvvRme0h2oY

[Simplicity2]

These death statistics stink a little,
Cases deemed “Seriously critical” are only ever a fraction 0.005%~ of active cases.
To actually die from corona you would need to enter a seriously critical state (any other path is not a death from corona).

Seriously critical state averages 1-2 days, it’s as if people are “dying from corona” with out ever entering such a state..

[Quicktrader]

My figures are different:

I have got 1,557,648 'Deaths' compared to 63,609,677 'Total cases' considering a 14-day period from infection to death. No matter what other people are telling you, this is 2.448% of all all 'total cases' dying. This percentage used to be somewhere from 3.5% to 3.2%, previously.

Thus, forget about the idea of 0,0005% whatsoever.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

QT

[Marshall]

The fact that the vast majority of deaths occur with the elderly, who also have preexisting conditions, indicates those preexisting conditions are highly relevant to the deaths. Put another way, take a young person with healthy immune system and no preexisting health issues, and the chance of them dying from Covid-19 is negligible.

Think of Covid-19 more as a catalyst that complicates other issues, rather than a stand-alone cause of death.

[Quicktrader]

The fact that the vast majority of deaths occur with the elderly, who also have preexisting conditions, indicates those preexisting conditions are highly relevant to the deaths. Put another way, take a young person with healthy immune system and no preexisting health issues, and the chance of them dying from Civid-19 is negligible.

Think of Covid-19 more as a catalyst that complicates other issues, rather than a stand-alone cause of death.

Agree, however some things maybe considered:

1) To 'accept' a disease because it affects elderly people more than others is up to us (possibly) younger people. Me won't.
2) Case fertility rates CFR for each country can be found here: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
3) Few years ago I had the flu of my life: Two weeks in bed, fire in my lungs and lots (LOTS) of pain. Even considered calling an ambulance, almost no breathing possible (~20%) etc. And guess what: Test for antigens made recently was 'negative'. For sure, I do not want to suffer Covid after having had such a pretty tough experience (and I can take some pain).

But you are right, out of those 130m approximately 95% will be elderly people or some with preexisting health issues.

My theory is that we all suffer from it at least 3-4 times over the next two decades, finally ending up as an elderly person, then.

Recently, I worry more about the side effects of Covid (looting etc.): People need jobs, food, safety, health, social contacts. Plenty of this could be 'gone' over the next years: It is said, that every 6th US citizen could suffer hunger over the next few months. Also, that approx. 23m might loose their homes. True or not, I don't know. Nuff said.

QT

[Quicktrader]

You have to be serious..

Over the last month, approximately 20m people got infected with SarsCov2. Can this data derive from increased testing of antibodies? Will any vaccine be used, after all, on a broader basis?

Meanwhile, the hospitals are getting overcrowded: Approximately 82% intensive care units already occupied (at least where I live). From Eastern Germany they even transport patients to Berlin hospitals due to lack of capacities. "Ick bin ein Berliner" the new way.

Looking back over a - recently common - 19-day hospitalization period, approx 2.74% of all new infections have already: Died. This value is improving, though, it still represents every 36th person will head towards eternity..why 'will'? Because the ~20m increase over ~50m from the previous month is (in detail) a 34% monthly growth rate (factor 33 over 12 months). Thus, ~2.4B people will get infected over the next 12 months - if the disease doesn't 'grow' or 'slow'.

At the current mortality rate (out of the infected cases only!) this will lead to ~65m people dying over the next 12 months. If you know 800 people, about 20 of those will most likely, well, you know.

It could be you. Or me. Or even both of us. So, from now on, we all have to be serious.

QT