I
Not that I'm correct but when I spoke of progression, it was in the context of the simplest explanation of how and why he moved from one murder to the next.
I agree he needed a easy sure thing.(Stine)
As to your last point, there is an argument that he was actually seen at LB/ or thought he might have been. The victims reporting they could see hair inside/as low as the eye slits, whereas PH, with a crew cut. Did he change hair style because he might have been seen acting suspiciously when looking for victims at LB?

