Occam's Razor & Ross?

[morf13]

Occam's Razor, It states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

Applying that to Ross(and the Z case in general):

1) Somebody that killed Paul Stine, and walked away from the cab(Zodiac) was witnessed by multiple people,and a resulting sketch was made

2)Letters & a desktop poem linked Zodiac to Riverside, and in particular, to the RCC Library as stated by a highly respected Document examiner in charge of the Zodiac case writing. These Riverside letters & writings closely follow habits, words, etc used by Zodiac.

Adding 1 & 2 above, seems to make Ross Sullivan the most likely Z suspect. How likely is it that a dead ringer for that sketch right down to the hairline(not somebody that has a general likeness of the sketch)can be linked to the RCC Library as Ross was, and is not the Zodiac? How many other people matched that sketch exactly, were in the RCC Library,and then later on, wound up in the SF Bay area? That would have to be a very small list of People.

Short of a verified link to the immediate area of Vallejo, and being generally taller then most descriptions of Zodiac, Ross fits the bill in many ways. We know he wrote a paper about how to write using different handwriting styles,something we know Z did. His timeline matches well with Zodiac's activities, and when he was incapacitated for good in 1974 due to his illness, the Zodiac's letters stopped.

How likely is it that there really is a better Suspect that can be connected to the RCC Library? After all these decades, there is NO OTHER SUSPECT that we can place there in that Library. Everybody has tried to connect their Suspect to the RCC Library, and nobody has been able to.

Occam's Razor, if applied when using Suspects like Mr X, Gaikowski, Allen, etc against Ross, would certainly choose Ross over any other Suspect. We make ZERO Assumptions on points 1 & 2 above, he looks identical to the Z sketch, and he was in the RCC Library....that can not be argued.

We await that one special witness to come forward with details or information about Ross connecting him to Vallejo,Napa, or SF during 1968-1974 as opposed to only a Santa Cruz link. Until we get that smoking gun, Ross remains an enigma of a Suspect with so much potential, but not enough verifiable info to go any further

[UKSpycatcher]

"How many other people matched that sketch exactly."

Just one counter to this argument. I know you believe the sketch is likely accurate Morf and because it resembles Ross Sullivan well, you err on the side it is, that is a good argument in your favor. But if you believe the three teenagers and Donald Fouke were really accurate with the description of Zodiac, it is easy to suggest they were also accurate with the height of between 5'8" and 5'10". However, you choose to accept the facial description and dismiss the height, by explaining that they could have been mistaken with the height. But if you believe they could be mistaken with the height, they could equally be mistaken with the facial features. It is easy to accept the facts that fit your suspect and explain away the ones that don't. This trait of selectivity is often used by people to promote their favorite suspects. This is not meant as a dig mind.

[morf13]

"How many other people matched that sketch exactly."

Just one counter to this argument. I know you believe the sketch is likely accurate Morf and because it resembles Ross Sullivan well, you err on the side it is, that is a good argument in your favor. But if you believe the three teenagers and Donald Fouke were really accurate with the description of Zodiac, it is easy to suggest they were also accurate with the height of between 5'8" and 5'10". However, you choose to accept the facial description and dismiss the height, by explaining that they could have been mistaken with the height. But if you believe they could be mistaken with the height, they could equally be mistaken with the facial features. It is easy to accept the facts that fit your suspect and explain away the ones that don't. This trait of selectivity is often used by people to promote their favorite suspects. This is not meant as a dig mind.

I have always thought this sketch reflected Zodiac's real appearance, BEFORE I ever saw a photo of Ross.
I mentioned the height being off. But the height descriptions were given by who? Fouke seated in a car driving by, kids looking down from a window across the street, and Mike Mageau with a light in his face while being shot. What could they use for scale and for height judgement?More lines up with Ross than does not

[Paul_Averly]

Even if you say well, there must have been other guys that used the RCC library in 1966 that could also look like the composite. You could pull a handful of people.

Now, subtract the ones who have no bay area connection.
subtract the ones who have no widows peak.
But most importantly, subtract the ones who have no record of severe mental illness.
After all that, you would still only get Ross.

I used to read the yellow book many years ago and say, all they need to do is find a guy from the RCC that matches the composite and had mental health issues. I never dreamed we would find a suspect so to the extreme of this as Ross.

[UKSpycatcher]

The RCC library connection is good and I respect Morf for all the effort he puts into researching his charge, but even as Morf has admitted in the past, we have no conclusive proof the murder of Cheri Jo Bates is a Zodiac crime. There are four confirmed attacks and five murders, not six. So if you base a suspect on an unconfirmed crime, you are building your case on weak foundations. If you can connect the Cheri Jo Bates case into the Zodiac murders, then your case is far more credible.

[morf13]

The RCC library connection is good and I respect Morf for all the effort he puts into researching his charge, but even as Morf has admitted in the past, we have no conclusive proof the murder of Cheri Jo Bates is a Zodiac crime. There are four confirmed attacks and five murders, not six. So if you base a suspect on an unconfirmed crime, you are building your case on weak foundations. If you can connect the Cheri Jo Bates case into the Zodiac murders, then your case is far more credible.

Again, Ross could have been z without killing Cheri, or if Ross wasn't z, whoever Z was didn't necessarily kill Cheri

[UKSpycatcher]

Yes that's true, the letters in the Cheri case are a good lead.

[Paul_Averly]

The RCC library connection is good and I respect Morf for all the effort he puts into researching his charge, but even as Morf has admitted in the past, we have no conclusive proof the murder of Cheri Jo Bates is a Zodiac crime. There are four confirmed attacks and five murders, not six. So if you base a suspect on an unconfirmed crime, you are building your case on weak foundations. If you can connect the Cheri Jo Bates case into the Zodiac murders, then your case is far more credible.

This is where most people have trouble accepting Ross as a suspect, because the notion is that you have to accept CJB as a Zodiac victim. But you really don't have to.

In the Zodiac case, there is evidence Zodiac was in Riverside. If you accept that Z could have written the Riverside letters, you accept Z was in Riverside at some point in 1966.
If Z was in Riverside and wrote those letters, it becomes even more likely he also wrote the desktop poem. If he wrote that poem, HE WAS IN THE LIBRARY at some point in 1966.

So it all comes down to that. You have the Riverside writings and the desktop. You have two choices, Z wrote them, or he did not.

If he did, Ross is the only Z look-alike that has a rock solid connection to that library.

[snooter]

Occams razor at this point would say ross is not the z..he can be placed at rcc in the time frame but thats it....there is no conclusive existing proof that can be used to tie in ross to z...again what is conclusive is ross can be placed at that library....ross is intresting and desrves his place on the poi list...until further evidence comes forth all we can do is speculate..

Personally the latest from riverside police has put a serious dent in ross as z...

[Norse]

I'm not sure Occam's Razor is applicable here. If we consider the multiple POI claims/cases as hypotheses, is the Ross claim really the one with the fewest assumptions (which explains the known facts/evidence)?

AFAIK we can't presently explain his involvement with the canonical Z crimes at all.

Secondly, this is mainly about comparing known persons: In a pool of people who for various reasons have been presented as suspects, or POIs - who is the best candidate? While this is an interesting enough question, it has to be pointed out that there is no reason why we should assume that Z is any of the known suspects or POIs in the case.