Zodiackillersite.com

Quicktrader wrote:I guess when you write 'cold' you actually mean a 'flu'? As 'cold' has not very much in common with a corona virus?

In 1918, an influenza pandemic was estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected - with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

Good to know there is nothing to worry about.

QT
(washing his hands)

between 300,000 and 600,000 people die per year of the flu. should i look back at your posting history to see how you've reacted to those numbers each flu season or should i take it for granted that you're part of the current panic because everyone else is? it's great that people are taking infecting others seriously and taking proper precautions. it sucks that common sense isn't prevailing against dodgy math that hopes to prove that we're all doomed. currently stores are out of basic supplies and hospitals are overrun because of what this could become, not what it is. that's sad because that type of panic for panic's sake is likely to cause more harm than this virus. i'm happy to continue the conversation if you have something productive to add, but if i'm going to get more math and language arts lessons i'll pass.

Poltifact has a fair assessment IMO:

Based solely on the numbers, you’re more likely to die if you get the 2019 coronavirus than if you get the flu.

But, as of now, the flu is more common in the United States than the coronavirus. Both diseases spread similarly and affect similar at-risk groups.

Researchers are still learning more about the severity of the coronavirus. That uncertainty makes it hard to make risk comparisons to other viruses.

So: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst = A good strategy.

Italy +2.313 (~22%)

I will go and buy some rice now, for the next 12 months..

US ranked on #8, still with 'few' cases, so far. Doubled since March 8 (3 days only).

Since February 28, the cases outside of China had a growth rate of >500%. In less than two weeks.

@masootz:
We are all doomed.

QT

UPDATE - Didn't get the rice....empty shelves, which usually are full. Therefore failed to follow the 'survival tipps'..taking it as a lesson. Tomorrow will go rice hunting


me: just hoping my uber eats driver stays well

this is not to far off the mark. i have not studied the figures because they are as rubbery as the world politicians are letting on.. read on

The concern about Covid-19 is well placed. There is misinformation and misunderstanding about Covid-19. E.g. you will see people saying it is no issue as there were 34,000 (2019) or 64,000 (2018) flu deaths in USA / 217,000 got the flu in Australia & 430 died this year.

There are only 2 values about the disease: mortality rate and a value called R0 (called R naught) which is how fast it spreads.


Mortality rate flu ~ 0.05%. Covid-19 latest 3%. (60 times worse). Measles 15% (long term effects up to 25%)

The R0 is a function of the rate of spread, methods, etc. Flu= 1.3. Covid-19=~3.5, and measles ~12-18

Therefore should we be concerned? Measles is much more deadly, flu less so. However, about 90% of population is measles vaccinated (about 85% in Beerburrum or Nimbin) and flu less so. Herd immunity kicks in and stops the spread for both measles and flu.

So the current strict quarantine is very sound. If Covid-19 gets away then it will spread and kill. Might be a year or more to have a vaccine.

Just like foot and mouth that Terry Donaldson worked on back in MAF days. Stop it early and hard, or it becomes impossible to control.

A reputable source of info is on the Australia govt site listed below.
https://www1.health.gov.au/…/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_we…

There is a vaccine developed and already into production but it takes time to refine, test on animals, humans etc. So a year is a reasonable guess.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StFr5-R5m1M

WHO SITUATION REPORT #51 is out since a few minutes:

Day-to-day growth rate was slightly above 12% over yesterday (outside China). BUT: Report # 51 represents the status quo at 10 am CET.

Over the last 11 hours, however, the overall count of Covid-19 infected has increased from 118,326 (report #51) to 125,652. This is a plus of 7,326 cases 'today' since 10am CET.

Considering approximately 40 cases from China, this increase of infections (outside China) is therefore ~7,275, based on the previous 37,371 cases outside China (118,326 minus 80,955; report #51). Which is a 19.6% increase in the first 11 hours of 'report #52', which is not published, yet. Still another 13 hours to go, increasing this day-to-day growth rate.

PANDEMIA status. WHO recommends to 'Make a plan in preparation for an outbreak of COVID-19 in your community'.

QT

Italy: 15,313 - plus 31.6% over yesterday (11,485), plus 65% over the day before yesterday (9,172).

Currently, the counter is on 133,499 cases. Out of China: 52,706 cases On February 28th, two weeks ago, there were 4,691 cases (outside China) 'only'. Now it is eleven-fold (or 3.35 multiplicator per week). Day-to-day rate in average: 18.9%.

For all the sceptics: The growth above was NOT produced by the full amount of cases: Only from those, that hadn't been cured (or in quarantine) yet. Approximately half of all cases has already recovered, however, thus the day-to-day growth rate, based on hosts walking around, is actually significantly higher. Thus, with increasing amount of hosts walking freely, the day-to-day growth rate most likely will even rise.


UPDATE:

Official Report #52 comes up with conservative 44,067 cases as of 10am CET (out of China). Plus 6,703 or +15.2% (day2day rate). At such rate, it takes five days to double the infections.

Day-to-day growth rates over the last few days:

14.8%
13.8%
12.5%
14.0%
15.2%

A pandemic taking place.

QT

Day-to-day growth rate today (report #53):

14.6%

WHO reported 132,758 confirmed cases. This one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

goes with 144,160, so far.

Germany 3,675
Italy 17,660
US 2,068

On March 9, we talked about 30,850 cases. If they would double / that these would not double necessarily. As of today, however, March 13, there are 64,887 cases outside China. Doubled in four days only.

QT

From yesterday's WHO report #54 (all outside China):

9,751 new cases; 61,518 total. Day-to-day growth rate is now 15.85%. 13 new territories affected.

Here in Austria, all 'events' are cancelled. Restaurants, bars etc. will - like schools - be closed for minimum of two weeks. Tyrole partially under quarantine, hotels all closing there. Meanwhile, one case in Thailand 'cured' after giving flu + hiv medicamentation in combo.

On March 9th, we had 30,850 cases (outside China). Yesterday it reached 61,518. More than double, actually a R0 of 2.14 over a period of 5-6 days - the approximate incubation time (thanks Mr. Iowe). To get COVID under control, this rate should go (significantly) below 1. Only that leading to a decrease of new infections..never ever, if you ask me. Day-to-day rate <0...this disease will accompany us over the next months, if not years, imo.

Wuhan had a similar R0 value (~2) before everything got out of control...somebody really has messed up somehow in that level 4 bio lab..

QT

Here in South Africa we now have 61 cases. It started with 1 confirmed last week, we are now up to 61. Our president just addressed our nation. We have a travel ban and all schools closed till after Easter holidays. And no social gatherings allowed either.