Zodiackillersite.com

this site gives you an idea as to why the virus can spread globally so quickly. this is a real time site.
so many planes. its insane.
https://www.flightradar24.com/

Mr lowe wrote:this site gives you an idea as to why the virus can spread globally so quickly. this is a real time site.
so many planes. its insane.
https://www.flightradar24.com/

True...alone from Milan Malpensa (Lombardy, Italy) an average of 550 flights - per day. Germany infections 10x more in about one week only (from 150 to 1,152 cases). Sure that thousands of cases are harder to 'control' than only three, especially if locally transmitted. First case in the US: January 20, 2020. Now the count is at 566.

QT

Quicktrader wrote:COVID-19

A total of 111,589 cases (currently). A total of 108 territories 'infected'. The daily growth rate - without China, they seem to have stopped publishing - has lowered a bit to 24.8%. But this is still bad enough:

On a 90-day basis, this equals to 1,248^90, thus 444,157,047.9 times more people infected (outside China).

Out of meanwhile 30,850 cases outside China, under the given circumstances, will become a total of potentially 13,702,244,928,132 people infected. In 90 days only. And yes, you are right, this is more than people are actually living on our planet.

Thus, statistically, everybody of us will be infected in less than 90 days.

QT

That's not how that works. You can't assume the growth rate will be constant. Otherwise, all of the other diseases that initially had high growth rates would have resulted in the same 100% infection.

Simple example: Bird flu cases reported per year, 2003 to 2019:

2003: 4
2004: 46
2005: 98
2006: 115
2007: 88
2008: 44
2009: 73
2010: 48
2011: 62
2012: 32
2013: 39
2014: 52
2015: 145
2016: 10
2017: 4
2018: 0
2019: 1

from 2004 to 2005 the cases doubled, but petered out afterwards. Then there was an alarming spike in 2015.
But you can't just say in 2005 that "we'll have double the infections from here on out."

Well, I never said 'We'll have double the infections from here on out.'. Nevertheless, you are right. But in case of a further outbreak, what does it matter if the disease will double in e.g. 90 or 180 days?

True, however, that it makes a difference of 'all people infected ever' compared to 'currently infected and outside quarantaine'. Latter data is hard to get. Also, there are unknown cases, which are not yet in the statistic.

Meanwhile, WHO has changed their website to 'Emergency' status.

Two weeks ago, Italy had ~450 cases - currently it's 9,172. Iran similar. And, to be honest, I do not see any significant slowdown in the charts:



But in fact, I made a calculation 'mistake' by comparing current numbers with WHO report numbers. This somewhat involved cases of the present day, which is not fully justified.

Real, however, if believing the official WHO situation reports, is a 13.8% daily growth rate (yesterday) compared to 12.5% daily growth rate (today). Thus, some significant improvement over yesterday can be noted (all outside China; situation reports #49, #50). With 14.8% the day before yesterday (#48), there seems to be 'hope'.

To lower this rate is the main target to stop the outbreak. But with 12.5% per day, the disease (outside China) will still double - in six days only. So I'd join a bet that this will happen, sooner or later.

My personal 'fear' is for some reasons:

- Compared to Ebola, this outbreak is a global one. Some countries will manage the disease, some will not. Reimported infections have already been reported from China.

- No vaccine found yet, repeated/multiple infections are possible (no natural immunization)

- Large number of unreported cases due to longer incubation time (than Ebola)

Last but not least, at some point the capacities of health care professionals might be limited. This also being the reason why Iran is still 'exploding' but South Korea somewhat had become able to slow down their local outbreak. If the overall amount of infected people cannot be controlled anymore (e.g. daily growth rate rising, due to previously non-reported cases; countries not getting capable of the situation- India?; etc.) it might get out of control.

If all health care professionals (in each country...) however manage to slow down their daily growth to 'zero' over the next days, the disease 'gets under control'. Imagine 4,500 new cases per day, all the people they had met in the 5-14 days of their incubation time.

WIth everybody under quarantaine - like 60.48m Italians currently - this might still be possible..but first, I guess, we will see a double in infections.

Italy update: 10,149.

QT

UPDATE I:

Slightly 'graphic':

Italy, Cremona, intensive care (9% of all infected require intensive care):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm97Binm-1c

In Italy, pensioned health care professionals are 'called back', even students of higher semesters are called to support treatment of Corona patients.

Germany had +38%.


UPDATE II:

Daily growth rate already 15.8% over yesterday.

QT

Here's the current chart of cases from the Johns Hopkins app:



Top line is China. Middle is total recovered. Bottom line is all other non-China cases combined.

Looks like China cases are flattening out. Growth is slowing. Hopefully it's not just because of under-reporting. And hopefully the bottom line will start doing that, too.

I sincerely mean this thank you smart kids for scratching Your heads over the numbers and data and posting .

it's a cold. the mortality rate appears higher than reality because most countries aren't testing mild/symptom-free cases so only those who have advanced to needing hospital care are being counted. once testing is done comprehensively those numbers will go down. it's like pulling data about the dangers of driving in cars but only counting cars that have been in an accident.

the main issue right now is that all of the chicken little sky is falling stuff is causing stores to run out of basic supplies like children's tylenol and ibuprofen which sucks for people who have a sick kid (sick with anything that requires those medicines), and toilet paper and bottled water. some hospitals are being overwhelmed by well-meaning people who think having a cold means an emergency room visit.

if there is one silver lining in this current insanity it's that the panic around coronavirus is closer to the seriousness we all should be taking during flu season (10,000 dead in US this flu season alone, but that's not newsworthy i guess). wash hands, stay home if you're sick.

I guess when you write 'cold' you actually mean a 'flu'? As 'cold' has not very much in common with a corona virus?

In 1918, an influenza pandemic was estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected - with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

Good to know there is nothing to worry about.

QT
(washing his hands)